Clean Grid · The model
Weights & assumptions, in the open
Every number behind the result. These are illustrative planning figures — the point is that they are visible and checkable, not hidden in a black box.
Per-unit factors
| Tech | Unit | CO₂ avoided / unit | Cost / unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar | GW | 1.3 Mt/yr | $0.9B |
| Wind | GW | 1.5 Mt/yr | $1.1B |
| Storage | GWh | 0.4 Mt/yr | $0.3B |
| Grid upgrades | $B | 0.6 Mt/yr | $1B |
- Solar: 1 GW of solar displaces ~1.3 Mt CO2/yr vs. a gas-heavy grid; ~$0.9B installed.
- Wind: 1 GW of wind runs at a higher capacity factor: ~1.5 Mt CO2/yr; ~$1.1B installed.
- Storage: Storage shifts clean power into peak hours, avoiding ~0.4 Mt CO2/yr per GWh; ~$0.3B.
- Grid upgrades: Transmission upgrades unlock stranded renewables: ~0.6 Mt CO2/yr of headroom per $1B.
The calculation
- CO₂ avoided = Σ (units × CO₂ per unit), in Mt/yr.
- Capital cost = Σ (units × cost per unit), in $B.
- Annual value = CO₂ avoided × 0.4 $B per Mt (a conservative carbon value).
- Payback = cost ÷ annual value, in years.
- Cost per ton = cost ÷ CO₂ avoided ($B/Mt) — the cleanest, cheapest path is the lowest one.
Saved scenarios
| Name | CO₂/yr | Cost | Payback | $/Mt | ID |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced baseline | 17.5 Mt | $14.3B | 2 yr | 0.82 | eecafaf9 |
| Wind-heavy | 26.9 Mt | $22.4B | 2.1 yr | 0.83 | ed384d93 |
| Solar-heavy | 24.9 Mt | $19.9B | 2 yr | 0.8 | ca0d07a3 |
cleangrid.ledger
$ cleangrid ledger --listeecafaf9 Balanced baseline — 17.5Mt/yr $14.3Bed384d93 Wind-heavy — 26.9Mt/yr $22.4Bca0d07a3 Solar-heavy — 24.9Mt/yr $19.9Bfingerprints are deterministic (FNV-1a) — same mix, same id